population

This page considers the size of the online population.

It covers -

• introduction
• who is online globally
• domestic use in Australia
• business use in Australia

     introduction

Figures for users of the web are problematical. Many of the more enthusiastic accounts are extrapolations from small and problematical samples. Many figures fail to differentiate between intensive and sporadic use, eg the person who goes online once during a year has the same numerical value as someone who is online for hours each day.

One estimate suggested that the number would grow to 707 million in 2002. In 1995 Nicholas Negroponte blithely claimed that by 2003 there would be more internet users than people on the planet, a fantasy that

• assumed continuation of early growth rates
• ignored inconvenient facts such as most people not having a phone (or indeed running water), something highlighted later in this guide and in the more detailed profile on particular digital divides.

The US Department of Commerce (DOC) and national Telecommunications & Information Administration (NTIA) reports on Falling Through The Net provide a detailed picture of who's online, analysing the 'telecommunications and information technology gap in America'.

The State of the Net 2000report is a snapshot by the US Internet Council (USIC) of access, ecommerce, traffic and other Internet statistics. While some of the figures are suspect, the report is a useful compilation. USIC's 1999 report is also online.

As noted in our guide to the web, Paul Clemente's The State of the Net (New York: McGraw-Hill 1998) almost by default has become a standard source in the industry, despite controversy over alleged appropriation of academic research.

A perspective is provided by Steve Coffey's 2001 Journal of Interactive Advertising paper on Internet Audience Measurement: A Practitioner's View.

     who is online globally?

In 1999 the Computer Industry Almanac claimed that the US had over 110 million users in 1999 (43% of the global figure of 259 million users), with Australia just ahead of Brazil at 6.83 million users. It projected 765 million users (ie around 10% of the population) by 2005.

In early 2004 it claimed that the global online population had grown to 945 million, projecting that would increase to 1.46 billion in 2007. The estimate from Nielsen-NetRatings at that time was that the global population was around 460 million. All very eye of newt and foot of toad .... such estimates are necessarily problematical. 

Nielsen-NetRatings claimed in May 2004 that the number of "active users", most located in the top ten wired nations, was around 298 million people. Australia accounted for around 8.4 million of that population, with some 141 million in the US.

OECD figures suggest that in 2001 business access (by % of enterprises with more than 10 employees) was broadly as follows:

nation	net access	own site	third party site
Australia	86.0	47.0	-
New Zealand	84.0	42.0	-
Austria	83.7	54.3	26.2
Denmark	93.0	71.0	na
Finland	90.8	59.7	-
Greece	54.2	28.8	8.3
Italy	72.0	8.9	25.8
Luxembourg	54.6	40.7	12.6
Norway	81.5	55.0	-
Portugal	71.8	30.3	2.4
Spain	67.0	6.9	28.8
Sweden	89.9	67.7	-
United Kingdom	63.4	49.9	11.4

     domestic use in Australia

In Australia the National Office for the Information Economy (NOIE) and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) have released reports on who is online and whether those people will be joined by other surfers in future.

The May 2000 figures from the ABS claimed that 54% (3.8 million) of Australian homes have a computer; 51% of regional homes have a machine, a 21% increase in three months, and nationally a third of Australian homes "have Internet access". 46% of all adults accessed the web in the preceding 12 months.

The September 2003 ABS report on internet use suggested that the total number of internet subscribers in Australia exceeded 5 million at the end of March quarter 2003, an increase of 521,000 subscribers (11%) since the end of September quarter 2002. The majority of new subscribers (over 98%) were in the Household sector, with over 4.4 million subscribers in total.

Overall growth identified by the ABS is as follows -

Data downloaded during the March 2003 quarter is estimated at 3,046 million Mbs, up from 1,039 million Mbs in the corresponding 2001 quarter (when there were 3.968 million subscribers).

By November 2006 the ABS reported that there were around 6 million active subscribers in Australia: 0.867 million institutional subscribers and 5.1 million household subscribers, for a substantially larger number of people online. Of the roughly six million subscribers some 2.8 million were on dial-up connections. 64% of the institutional (government, business, education sector) subscribers were on broadband.

     business use in Australia

Figures on the size and shape of the non-domestic online population in Australia - ie business and institutional use - are contentious. They are often extrapolated from small and arguably inadequate samples. They also centre on basic counts of connectivity rather than use.

Overall growth in business use identified by the ABS to 2004 was as follows -

ISP Pacific Internet sponsored an ongoing study of broadband connectivity among small & medium sized enterprises (SMEs), ie organisations with less than 250 employees.

It claimed that as of July 2004 "broadband penetration" among internet-enabled small businesses was 52%, up from 47% in January 2004, 45% in September 2003, 41% in June 2003, and 23% in June 2002. Of that group, 39% employed a product aimed at the residential market and 56% indicated that the account was used for both business and personal use. There was significant variation across Australia, with for example 62% of metropolitan respondents on broadband versus 24% in non-metropolitan locations.

The June 2000 NOIE-Yellow Pages report offered figures about use of the web by small, medium and large-scale enterprises. Much of that report is inconsistent with the more credible December 2000 report from the ABS regarding business use of IT, including use of email, etailing and online presences.

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